UK business confidence dips to lowest level since general election

UK business confidence has fallen to its lowest since the general election, with firms becoming more pessimistic about the economic outlook. The Lloyds Bank Business Barometer revealed a three-point drop in business optimism to 47%, the lowest since June. This decline is attributed to growing concerns about the economy, with 19% of businesses expressing less positive views. The net balance of economic optimism also fell to 38%, the lowest since March. Despite the overall decrease in confidence, businesses remain positive about their own trading prospects. Hann-Ju Ho, a senior economist at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, warned that economic expansion may occur at a slower rate than the first half of 2024. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has indicated that October s budget will require difficult decisions on tax, spending, and welfare, while also considering relaxing fiscal rules to prioritize investment. The Recruitment and Employment Confederation reported a sharp drop in employer confidence about hiring in August, and the British Retail Consortium found a significant fall in consumer confidence in September. A survey from KPMG found that three-quarters of financial services leaders expect the budget to have at least a moderate impact on their business, with over a quarter expecting a significant impact. Sector-specific tax increases, such as bank surcharges, and payroll cost changes are expected to be the biggest impacts. British banks, which have enjoyed bumper profits due to higher interest rates, are lobbying against tax increases. Concerns have been raised that the Office for Budget Responsibility may conclude that the plans to crack down on super-rich non-domiciles will raise no money and could prompt wealthy foreigners to leave the UK. Leaders in the financial services sector are bracing for the budget s considerable impact on their businesses. Inflation pressures and interest rates are seen as the biggest business challenges for the rest of the year, but optimism remains for business growth and profitability in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, the immediate challenges of a turbulent economy may detract from longer-term issues like ESG and technology advancements.

Source: theguardian.com
Published on 2024-09-29